Climate Change Summary Newsletter and Commentary

Climate Change Summary Newsletter and Commentary

December 21, 2009

Steven L. Hoch
Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, LLP

Copenhagen

It’s Over, So What Was Accomplished?
Its like… we all promise to like promise to do something, but like you can’t see what I’m doing… like, so, yeah.

The summit officially ended Saturday with a gentlemen’s agreement among the world’s largest economies to take steps to curb greenhouse gas emissions, but no formal consensus on the part of the 193 nations present — and no prescription for what comes next in the global negotiating process that is nearly 20 years old. The most celebrated aspects are a batch of provisions that will boost the likelihood of major emitters acting on their own to reduce carbon pollution and will send clear signals to clean-energy investors and inventors. Nations joining the accord will, by Jan. 31, list their pledges for long-term emissions control. Developed nations will declare cuts; fast-developing nations will sign up for reductions as a share of their overall economy. Other key provisions included forest protection, transparency on levels of emissions and a massive financial aid package for developing nations, along with the most formalized commitments yet that economic powerhouses China, India and the United States will take steps to move away from fossil fuels. The climate accord’s limitations, meanwhile, were clear to advocates and critics alike. It is not legally binding. It does not cut emissions aggressively enough to avoid a level of warming that scientists warn could prove catastrophic. It includes no measure to enforce nations’ emissions pledges, other than international peer pressure, and no deadline to turn the accord into a treaty to be ratified. Negotiators across the globe will meet in Germany next spring and again in Mexico City for a major conference near the end of 2010. See: http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-fg-copenhagen-climate20-2009dec20,0,6958334.story

Putting Our Economy in the Hands of Chavez Fans
This guy needs Thorazine, at the very least.

President Chavez brought the house down when he said the process in Copenhagen was “not democratic, it is not inclusive, but isn’t that the reality of our world, the world is really an imperial dictatorship.” He stated the world should bring down imperial dictatorships and got a rousing round of applause. When he said there was a “silent and terrible ghost in the room” and that ghost was called capitalism, the applause was deafening. But then he wound up to his grand conclusion 20 minutes after his 5 minute speaking time was supposed to have ended and after quoting everyone from Karl Marx to Jesus Christ, he said “our revolution seeks to help all people and socialism, the other ghost that is probably wandering around this room, that’s the way to save the planet, capitalism is the road to hell... let’s fight against capitalism and make it obey us.” He won a standing ovation. See:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2409344/posts


Other Quotes from World Leaders
Political wisdom (an oxymoronic statement itself) is the same no matter where you are.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy: “The discussions lasted all night without interruption… The good news is that they’re continuing — the bad news is they haven’t reached a conclusion… There is a lot of tension... but even so, things are moving a bit… “What’s blocking things? A country like China which has trouble accepting the idea of a monitoring body. India has trouble accepting a target for limiting its carbon emissions… and then there are grotesque positions from a country like Sudan.”

India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh: “Each one of us acknowledges that those worst affected by climate change are the least responsible for it. Whatever emerges from our negotiations must address this glaring injustice; injustice to the countries of Africa, injustice to the least developed countries and injustice to the small island states whose very survival as viable nations is in jeopardy.”

Environment Minister of EU President Sweden Andreas Carlgren: “My impression is that through the whole process the real problem has been on the one hand the United States, who are not able to deliver sufficiently. Now they have started but they came very late. On the other hand you have China, and they delivered less. And they have been really blocking again and again in this process, followed by a group of oil states. That’s the real differences, the real confrontations behind this.”

UN IPCC chairman Rajenrda Pachauri: “The recent incident of stealing the e-mails of scientists at the University of East Anglia shows that some would go to the extent of carrying out illegal acts, perhaps in an attempt to discredit the IPCC.”

See: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20091218/tpl-uk-climate-copenhagen-quotes-factbox-c3c492c.html; http://www.globalwarminghysteria.com/blog/2009/12/7/copenhagen-never-underestimate-the-power-of-stupid-people-in.html

Ecuador says it will Halt Extraction of Oil in Exchange for Value of Saved Carbon Emissions
So, we’re going to pay to not drill oil in a culturally significant area, occupied by indigenous tribes? We should all get money for not driving. Send money, ignore reality.

Ecuador announced that it is willing to refrain from extracting more than 840 million barrels of oil reserves contained in its Yasuni National Park in exchange for international contributions totaling at least half of what the country could receive if it sold its oil on the open market. Keeping the Yasuni oil reserves underground would prevent the release of 407 million tons of carbon dioxide that otherwise would be emitted if the oil fields were tapped. It also would protect biodiversity in the Amazon region and would preserve lands occupied by the indigenous. The Cultural and Natural Heritage Minister said the government is close to finalizing a financial mechanism that would channel money from wealthy, developed nations into a trust fund that would be administered by the United Nations Development Program. The government estimates that the present value of the 407 million tons of preserved carbon dioxide is equal to roughly $5 billion, assuming a market value of around $17 per ton of carbon dioxide-equivalent. See: http://climate.bna.com/Home.html

Inconvenient Truth for Al Gore as His North Pole Sums Don’t Add Up
The planet has a fever…. well, maybe not… but let’s say so anyway.

Mr. Gore, speaking at the Copenhagen summit, stated the latest research showed that the Arctic could be completely ice-free in five years. In his speech, Mr. Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr. Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.” However, the climatologist whose work Mr. Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast. “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.” See:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6956783.ece


“Gore Effect” Strikes as Congressional Delegation to Leave Copenhagen Early to Beat Snowstorm
The solution to global warming is to clone Al Gore and send the clones wherever it may get too hot!

Much of the East Coast of the United States is set for a major blast of winter this weekend with snow totals of more than one foot forecast for the Washington DC area. The Congressional delegation of 21 lawmakers now in Copenhagen announced they would leave early in order to beat the snowstorm before it strikes the nation’s capital. The climate summit began on December 7th and it seems like the ‘Gore Effect’ has been striking routinely since then. Leading up to the event, much of the United States was plunged into a deep freeze. Snow fell in Houston, Denver experienced temperatures 30 degrees below normal and 370 new record low temperatures were set or tied in a three day span across the United States. Not even the summit itself has been immune to the effect as a major snowstorm struck Copenhagen yesterday and temperatures plummeted. President Obama landed at the summit amid snow falling. Denmark’s Meteorological Institute said that the nation may have its first white Christmas in 14 years. The term, ‘Gore Effect’ was coined in recent years for the unseasonable weather that oftentimes accompanies appearances by former vice president and Nobel Laureate Al Gore or when a global warming event is held. Cold and snow have followed Al Gore and these events across the globe with amazing frequency since 2004. See:

http://www.examiner.com/x-25061-Climate-Change-Examiner~y2009m12d18-Gore-Effect-strikes-as-Congressional-delegation-to-leave-Copenhagen-early-to-beat-snowstorm


Denmark v. Greenland
The Vegas Line is Greenland + 7.

Greenland’s home rule chairman, Kupik Kleist, said that low standards of living on the Arctic island mean it should not be included in any greenhouse gas emissions-reduction commitments signed by Denmark. While confirming his commitment to responsible and sustainable development, Kleist said Greenland should “have the right to develop independently.” Though a Danish protectorate, Greenland enjoys broad autonomy, and a future referendum on full independence remains an active topic. Speaking to BNA at a COP-15 news briefing in Copenhagen, Kleist pointed out that over 40 percent of Greenland's budget is provided by the Danish state. That subsidy could be withdrawn if Greenland wins greater autonomy, in which case Greenland would have to “double [its] emissions just to replace that money.” “We claim that we have the right to develop our society as well as the rest of the world,” Kleist said when asked if Greenland should be exempt from Danish emissions quotas. See:

http://climate.bna.com/subscriber/World.Climate.Change.Report.html?d=A0C1R0D7C9&dt=News&print=true

Emission

Highest CO2 Emissions Increases
This may be a case of “Do as I do, not as I say.”

Between 1990 and 2005 Vietnam had the highest rate of emissions growth among countries that emitted more than 100 million tons of CO2 in any year during the past three decades. Vietnam's emissions from fossil fuel use, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring increased 376 percent from 5.8 million metric tons of carbon to 27.8 million tons between 1990 and 2005. Malaysia ranked second with a 224 percent increase. China topped the rankings in terms of total carbon emissions growth over the period. China's carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement manufacturing, and gas flaring increased by 875.7 million tons of carbon to 1.53 billion tons of carbon (5.62 billion tons CO2) in 2005. Others who increased: Thailand 183%, Nigeria 151%, UAE 148%, Egypt 133%, Indonesia 120%, Indonesia 111% and India 106%. Check out this site for multiple charts of interest. See:

http://news.mongabay.com/2009/1204-carbon_emissions.html


U.S. Emissions Won't Return to 2008 Levels Until 2019
One more good recession and we’re done.
Greenhouse gas emissions from the U.S. energy sector have fallen and won't reach 2008 levels again until 2019 according to the Energy Information Administration. "The recession will have a lasting impact" on gross domestic product, total energy use and carbon dioxide emission levels, EIA Administrator Richard Newell. The recession's pinch on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants, transportation and industry from 2008 to 2009 won't be made up for a decade, under a projected 0.3 percent average annual growth, EIA says. With no change in policies, U.S. emission levels from energy-related sources will grow a total of 8.7 percent from 2008 to 2035. Energy-related sources currently account for about 85 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. See: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/




To Curb Emission, U.K. Will Make Air Travel Expensive and Difficult as much as Possible
Fly me to the tax collector, and keep me on the tarmac burning fuel….huh?

A new U.K. report says that if the aviation industry continues to grow unchecked, passenger journeys would increase by 200% in the next 40 years, but that cannot be tolerated. Even with an anticipated carbon price of £200 per tonne passed on to fares, the creation of a high-speed rail network, and more use of video-conferencing to cut business travel, the report warns that more action such as constraining airport use might be needed in order to stop the population from flying. A carbon tax, limits on further airport expansion, and restrictions on the allocation of takeoff and landing slots even where airports are the other part of the plan. See:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/08/passenger-tax-flights-reduce-co2


Environmentalists Say ‘Leaked’ Document Shows Emission Targets Fall Short
A leak here, a leak there…it’s hard to know whose leaking what.

Environmental groups who have been pushing industrialized nations to toughen their emission-reduction targets are pointing to a leaked draft U.N. document that argues commitments currently on the table from developed and developing nations would not be sufficient to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations to 450 parts per millions. Instead, the document says numbers on the table would lead to a 3 degree temperature increase from pre-industrial levels; a threshold that climate scientists believe will lead to far worse consequences from climate change, especially in the developing world. See: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/17/un-leaked-report-copenhagen-3c

Missing Pollutants

The ‘Forgotten 50%’ of GHG Pollutants
If we just keep forgetting about them, pretty soon we won’t remember them.

CO2 accounts for only half the world's GHGs. The other sources include black carbon, soot from incompletely burned fossil fuels and biomass, including that produced by ships and cooking stoves that collects in the atmosphere and on ice and prevents sunlight from being reflected back into space; HFCs, used in refrigerators and air conditioners worldwide; and methane, which emanates from coal mines and landfills. Many scientists and environmentalists say reducing the "forgotten 50%" of pollutants will be faster, easier and substantially cheaper than cutting CO2, and could buy the world time in its climate clock race. HFC regulation is handled through a decades-old treaty that aims to phase out pollutants that deplete the ozone layer. Action on black carbon is a particularly appealing goal for island nations concerned that the world may be nearing "tipping points" of global warming, in which increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere start a chain reaction of temperature rise that would lead to their nations being swallowed by rising seawater. See:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-fg-climate-emissions14-2009dec14,0,4164470.story?track=rss

Revolt

Smart Meters Cause Revolt
This may just be the start of consumer revolt against climate change regulations.

As millions of households across the U.S. are outfitted with "smart meters" that track how much electricity is used hour by hour, some customers and state officials have questioned whether the meters truly benefit the public and will save customers money. Tensions have mounted in California as homeowners have expressed outrage over increases in bills, claiming they are being charged for more kilowatt hours than they believe they are using. But PG&E, which has installed four million meters in California, says that the scores of complaints stem from spikes in electrical usage and quirky pricing systems in the state, not faulty machines. Still, the state plans to bring in outside auditors to look into the issue. On the other side of the country, the Connecticut AG worries about similar issues cropping up and that the benefits of the transition will come long after consumers must shoulder the cost of the move during the recession. He convinced Connecticut Light and Power to scale back its plan for widespread installation of the meters and run a test program first. See:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/14/us/14meters.html?_r=1

Something to Read

Climate Change is Natural: 100 reasons Why
You be the judge.

100 reasons, released in a dossier issued by the European Foundation, why climate change is natural and not man-made are found at: http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/146138

California

Ethanol Seeks Rule Rejection
If we can’t use it in cars, let’s just drink it.

Ethanol lobbyists made a last-ditch attempt to send California's low-carbon fuel regulation back to the drafting stage with a plea to a key state official to reject the rule on the grounds that its architects did not follow proper procedures. The Renewable Fuels Association charged CARB with circumventing the required administrative process after it tentatively approved the low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS), earlier this year. CARB filed the rule with the administrative office Nov. 25, in what amounts to a final bureaucratic hurdle before the agency can formally approve the rule. The LCFS directs fuels producers to cut the carbon intensity of their products by 10 percent by 2020, but ethanol manufacturers are opposed because the carbon intensity formula would apply a life-cycle emissions test that takes into account effects on agriculture and land use. The letter comes a day after researchers at Stanford University published research that found ethanol is more likely than gasoline to generate ozone and ozone-related health problems. RFA took issue with those findings, as well. See:

http://www.dtnethanolcenter.com/index.cfm?show=10&mid=84&pid=10


California Mulls over New Cost Containment Rules in Cap-and-Trade-Plan
Did you ever mull over anything… or did you just think about it?

California regulators are floating several cost-containment measures in the design of their GHG cap-and-trade program, including an allowance price floor and expansion of the use of offsets. The draft proposals are already prompting controversy among some stakeholders, with most environmentalists opposing more liberal use of offsets and industry and businesses groups strongly supporting broad offset use, with some firms opposing a price floor. CARB said it could set a minimum auction price—or “reserve price”—below which allowances could not be sold at auction. Unsold allowances could be held in a reserve holding account, which could be augmented through “direct allocation,” and could release allowances from the reserve during times of high prices, which CARB believes would help contain costs but also “provide only a limited increase in credit supply” to strike an attractive balance. Offsets were limited to 4 percent and stakeholder complain that is far too stringent, and minimizes the productive use of valuable emission-reduction actions being taken outside California and the U.S. See:

http://ee.iwpnews.com/index.php/ccn/showcat/C72


California Panel Speaks on Cap-and-Trade
Speak panel, speak!! Good panel!

A panel of nationwide economists and climate change policy experts advising California on the design of its greenhouse gas (GHG) cap-and-trade program is recommending the state rely on “border adjustments”—or charges on the carbon-intensity of imported fuels and other materials—to prevent the “leakage” of GHG emissions and jobs to other states and countries that do not have similar GHG controls. However, the expert panel is acknowledging that state border adjustments do face some legal uncertainties, such as potential violation of the commerce clause of the U.S. Constitution. One major oil company is already inquiring about the legal uncertainties involved with the policy. The panel’s recommendation in effect rejects for the most part freely allocating emission allowances to energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries as an alternative way to reduce leakage. See:

http://carboncontrolnews.com/%20and%20http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/eaac/